Israel

[supergas]

Jan 7, 2024 18:44:26 GMT oldie said:

Jan 7, 2024 12:13:12 GMT supergas said:

OK, you win the Iran-knowledge game of Top Trumps, but yet you still jump to conclusions that completely rule out the most logical explanation for certain things, providing no actual facts to back them up....

Why is your view "logical"?

Occam's razor - if you have two competing ideas to explain the same phenomenon, you should prefer the simpler one.

The Middle East has been an area divided by religion, by culture, by all kinds of factors for millennia - lines have been drawn and redrawn on maps ever since maps were invented. It has been an area with regular conflict since before proper records were kept...

...so we have the simple reason I propose - that one group (or a collection of groups) in the region are launching these attacks to escalate the conflict between Israel and Hamas and use it as a reason to eventually attack Israel directly...

...or the much more complex reason that you seem to be suggesting, that the US (not sure exactly who in the US, Biden doesn't seem likely to be on-board) is pulling the strings, organising/funding/conducting terrorist attacks on foreign soil and on international shipping to do....well, to do something that's not entirely clear.

[oldie]

Jan 11, 2024 11:45:49 GMT supergas said:

Jan 7, 2024 18:44:26 GMT oldie said:

Why is your view "logical"?

Occam's razor - if you have two competing ideas to explain the same phenomenon, you should prefer the simpler one.

The Middle East has been an area divided by religion, by culture, by all kinds of factors for millennia - lines have been drawn and redrawn on maps ever since maps were invented. It has been an area with regular conflict since before proper records were kept...

...so we have the simple reason I propose - that one group (or a collection of groups) in the region are launching these attacks to escalate the conflict between Israel and Hamas and use it as a reason to eventually attack Israel directly...

...or the much more complex reason that you seem to be suggesting, that the US (not sure exactly who in the US, Biden doesn't seem likely to be on-board) is pulling the strings, organising/funding/conducting terrorist attacks on foreign soil and on international shipping to do....well, to do something that's not entirely clear.

Historical record.
Us and the French after WW1 carving up the previous Ottoman area of control, primarily the old Mesopotamia, for our own benefit. Lines on the map that we recognise today were drawn then.
Our role in promoting the Wahabbi Saud family to lead what became Saudi Arabia.
Our role in the coup that overthrew the elected government in Iran in 1952. Subsequently imposing a fascist monarchy on the people there.

As for the standard trope that people from this region have been fighting each other since forever can I suggest a good read?

www.jewishbookcouncil.org/book/farewell-babylon-coming-of-age-in-jewish-baghdad

From the blurb

"And we dis­cov­er how before World War II the com­mon ene­my of both Jews and Mus­lims were the Eng­lish, before the shift to the Ger­mans as the pri­ma­ry Jew­ish antag­o­nist after the 1941 pro-Nazi pogrom"

Yep.

[stuart1974]

Jan 11, 2024 13:15:31 GMT oldie said:

Jan 11, 2024 11:45:49 GMT supergas said:

Occam's razor - if you have two competing ideas to explain the same phenomenon, you should prefer the simpler one.

The Middle East has been an area divided by religion, by culture, by all kinds of factors for millennia - lines have been drawn and redrawn on maps ever since maps were invented. It has been an area with regular conflict since before proper records were kept...

...so we have the simple reason I propose - that one group (or a collection of groups) in the region are launching these attacks to escalate the conflict between Israel and Hamas and use it as a reason to eventually attack Israel directly...

...or the much more complex reason that you seem to be suggesting, that the US (not sure exactly who in the US, Biden doesn't seem likely to be on-board) is pulling the strings, organising/funding/conducting terrorist attacks on foreign soil and on international shipping to do....well, to do something that's not entirely clear.

Historical record.
Us and the French after WW1 carving up the previous Ottoman area of control, primarily the old Mesopotamia, for our own benefit. Lines on the map that we recognise today were drawn then.
Our role in promoting the Wahabbi Saud family to lead what became Saudi Arabia.
Our role in the coup that overthrew the elected government in Iran in 1952. Subsequently imposing a fascist monarchy on the people there.

As for the standard trope that people from this region have been fighting each other since forever can I suggest a good read?

www.jewishbookcouncil.org/book/farewell-babylon-coming-of-age-in-jewish-baghdad

From the blurb

"And we dis­cov­er how before World War II the com­mon ene­my of both Jews and Mus­lims were the Eng­lish, before the shift to the Ger­mans as the pri­ma­ry Jew­ish antag­o­nist after the 1941 pro-Nazi pogrom"

Yep.

I fail to see what benefit we have in being behind this event, be that us, the US, Isreal or France.

[oldie]

Jan 11, 2024 13:21:50 GMT stuart1974 said:

Jan 11, 2024 13:15:31 GMT oldie said:

Historical record.
Us and the French after WW1 carving up the previous Ottoman area of control, primarily the old Mesopotamia, for our own benefit. Lines on the map that we recognise today were drawn then.
Our role in promoting the Wahabbi Saud family to lead what became Saudi Arabia.
Our role in the coup that overthrew the elected government in Iran in 1952. Subsequently imposing a fascist monarchy on the people there.

As for the standard trope that people from this region have been fighting each other since forever can I suggest a good read?

www.jewishbookcouncil.org/book/farewell-babylon-coming-of-age-in-jewish-baghdad

From the blurb

"And we dis­cov­er how before World War II the com­mon ene­my of both Jews and Mus­lims were the Eng­lish, before the shift to the Ger­mans as the pri­ma­ry Jew­ish antag­o­nist after the 1941 pro-Nazi pogrom"

Yep.

I fail to see what benefit we have in being behind this event, be that us, the US, Isreal or France.

Like you Stuart I cannot be definitive.
But always remember it was the Americans who killed the Iranian national 4 years ago, whilst he was in Iraq. A very large portion of Iraqi society have sympathy for the Iranian regime so it is likely he was working with that group. However that was four years ago, if it was ISIS why didn't they attack on the three preceding years on the anniversary of his killing?
It makes no sense, other than in the context of what is going on now in that region. Add to that toxic mix that it is in the political (and probably legal benefit) interests for Netanyahu to provoke Hesbollah and try and act as Israel's saviour in any ensuing conflict with them.
That may unsettle American domestic politics, but not the Pentagon.

[baggins]

Lots of finger pointing, lots of show of military strength, lots of deaths. And no-one will come out better off.

[stuart1974]

"Shipping costs have risen by more than 300% since November amid the disruption caused to freight in the Red Sea from attacks, according to fresh data.

Just hours after US and UK-led attacks on Yemen aimed at preventing renewed assaults on shipping by Iran-aligned Houthi rebels, it was revealed that freight prices continued to rise over the past week.

The most widely used measure of freight cost, the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI), hit $3,101 (£2,429) per container from $2,871 (£2,249) last Friday, according to data given to Sky News by global logistics company DSV.

It meant that the SCFI, which measures the average cost of a 20ft-long container being shipped from Shanghai to Europe, was 310% up on the level seen at the start of November."

news.sky.com/story/shipping-costs-are-more-than-300-up-as-suez-shipping-crisis-deepens-13046610

[stuart1974]

Breaking news, let's see if this is as significant as the initial headlines imply.

"The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) says it has noted an incident in waters off Yemen.

It says a vessel was hit from above by a missile near the Yemeni city of Aden."

[baggins]

Jan 15, 2024 14:14:40 GMT stuart1974 said:

Breaking news, let's see if this is as significant as the initial headlines imply.

"The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) says it has noted an incident in waters off Yemen.

It says a vessel was hit from above by a missile near the Yemeni city of Aden."

That entire area will never, ever sort itself out and we should leave well alone and let them get on with it.

[stuart1974]

Jan 15, 2024 14:24:00 GMT baggins said:

Jan 15, 2024 14:14:40 GMT stuart1974 said:

Breaking news, let's see if this is as significant as the initial headlines imply.

"The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) says it has noted an incident in waters off Yemen.

It says a vessel was hit from above by a missile near the Yemeni city of Aden."

That entire area will never, ever sort itself out and we should leave well alone and let them get on with it.

That's different to freedom of navigation or sea lanes of communication. Although where is Egypt? They control the Suez canal so must be losing over the redirected ships.

[stuart1974]

😶

[supergas]

Jan 15, 2024 14:24:00 GMT baggins said:

Jan 15, 2024 14:14:40 GMT stuart1974 said:

Breaking news, let's see if this is as significant as the initial headlines imply.

"The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) says it has noted an incident in waters off Yemen.

It says a vessel was hit from above by a missile near the Yemeni city of Aden."

That entire area will never, ever sort itself out and we should leave well alone and let them get on with it.

If we 'let them get on with it' then hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of people will be slaughtered over religious/cultural differences. An even larger number will flee the region and so most of those that are left won't be classed as 'sensible moderates'...

[baggins]

Jan 18, 2024 4:28:12 GMT supergas said:

Jan 15, 2024 14:24:00 GMT baggins said:

That entire area will never, ever sort itself out and we should leave well alone and let them get on with it.

If we 'let them get on with it' then hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of people will be slaughtered over religious/cultural differences. An even larger number will flee the region and so most of those that are left won't be classed as 'sensible moderates'...

Isn't that what's happening anyway?  This isn't new.

[stuart1974]

Jan 18, 2024 6:11:57 GMT baggins said:

Jan 18, 2024 4:28:12 GMT supergas said:

If we 'let them get on with it' then hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of people will be slaughtered over religious/cultural differences. An even larger number will flee the region and so most of those that are left won't be classed as 'sensible moderates'...

Isn't that what's happening anyway?  This isn't new.

Other people's problems tend to become our problems in time.

30 years ago I read a book where the author suggested climate change and regional instability in Africa and the Middle East would lead to mass migration to Europe.

[gashead79]

Jan 16, 2024 20:51:33 GMT stuart1974 said:

😶

This will be more complex than the simple headline. There's a chess match going on and some of the peices are in disguise.
Sure Trolldie and his Anglo-Iranian sons will have insight but it might be biased..

The UK and USA feel a bit weak to me at the moment. We've an unelected PM who is out of favour and can't assert himself. The USA have a premier who can hardly walk let alone impose the nations prowess on anything. Trump is going to shake that up over the next few months.
We seem obliged to have a say in each and every international incident without the ability to execute any pressure at all. The old enemies have not been in a better position for decades.

[oldie]

Jan 18, 2024 7:31:51 GMT gashead79 said:

Jan 16, 2024 20:51:33 GMT stuart1974 said:

😶

This will be more complex than the simple headline. There's a chess match going on and some of the peices are in disguise.
Sure Trolldie and his Anglo-Iranian sons will have insight but it might be biased..

The UK and USA feel a bit weak to me at the moment. We've an unelected PM who is out of favour and can't assert himself. The USA have a premier who can hardly walk let alone impose the nations prowess on anything. Trump is going to shake that up over the next few months.
We seem obliged to have a say in each and every international incident without the ability to execute any pressure at all. The old enemies have not been in a better position for decades.

"Sure Trolldie and his Anglo-Iranian sons will have insight but it might be biased."

Touched a nerve have I?

[stuart1974]

Jan 18, 2024 7:31:51 GMT gashead79 said:

Jan 16, 2024 20:51:33 GMT stuart1974 said:

😶

This will be more complex than the simple headline. There's a chess match going on and some of the peices are in disguise.
Sure Trolldie and his Anglo-Iranian sons will have insight but it might be biased..

The UK and USA feel a bit weak to me at the moment. We've an unelected PM who is out of favour and can't assert himself. The USA have a premier who can hardly walk let alone impose the nations prowess on anything. Trump is going to shake that up over the next few months.
We seem obliged to have a say in each and every international incident without the ability to execute any pressure at all. The old enemies have not been in a better position for decades.

Unconvinced by Trump as although it may work here, I fear his isolationist approach will cause more harm than good.

With regards to this, the video of Peter Oborne I posted elsewhere covers this too. He referenced the 1982 Isreal Lebanon incursion and how Reagan simply called Begim and told him to stop. Wouldn't happen now, we live in a different world where the US president (pretty much whoever is in position) doesn't have that amount of authority.

[stuart1974]

Jan 18, 2024 7:54:14 GMT oldie said:

Jan 18, 2024 7:31:51 GMT gashead79 said:

This will be more complex than the simple headline. There's a chess match going on and some of the peices are in disguise.
Sure Trolldie and his Anglo-Iranian sons will have insight but it might be biased..

The UK and USA feel a bit weak to me at the moment. We've an unelected PM who is out of favour and can't assert himself. The USA have a premier who can hardly walk let alone impose the nations prowess on anything. Trump is going to shake that up over the next few months.
We seem obliged to have a say in each and every international incident without the ability to execute any pressure at all. The old enemies have not been in a better position for decades.

"Sure Trolldie and his Anglo-Iranian sons will have insight but it might be biased."

Touched a nerve have I?

I've read your posts on the other site, you seem to be discussing events with a 13 year old fantasist. 🙄

[supergas]

Jan 18, 2024 7:31:51 GMT gashead79 said:

his will be more complex than the simple headline. There's a chess match going on and some of the peices are in disguise.
Sure Trolldie and his Anglo-Iranian sons will have insight but it might be biased..

The UK and USA feel a bit weak to me at the moment. We've an unelected PM who is out of favour and can't assert himself. The USA have a premier who can hardly walk let alone impose the nations prowess on anything. Trump is going to shake that up over the next few months.
We seem obliged to have a say in each and every international incident without the ability to execute any pressure at all. The old enemies have not been in a better position for decades.

The UK and US are weak at the moment and it could get worse - I've seen a few articles about why Sunak should call the UK General Election in May/June rather than Autumn - the concern is that the lack of leadership during the two elections (UK General/US Presidential) and the probable change in at least one leaves a foreign policy gap...that can and will be planned for by Russia, Iran, China, Hamas, the Houthis and all of their associates (governments and non-governmental groups).

[oldie]

Jan 18, 2024 8:52:28 GMT stuart1974 said:

Jan 18, 2024 7:54:14 GMT oldie said:

"Sure Trolldie and his Anglo-Iranian sons will have insight but it might be biased."

Touched a nerve have I?

I've read your posts on the other site, you seem to be discussing events with a 13 year old fantasist. 🙄

Trymer?
If so yes..or Ltd whose style is suspiciously like Basel..you have to laugh

[stuart1974]

Jan 18, 2024 9:33:18 GMT oldie said:

Jan 18, 2024 8:52:28 GMT stuart1974 said:

I've read your posts on the other site, you seem to be discussing events with a 13 year old fantasist. 🙄

Trymer?
If so yes..or Ltd whose style is suspiciously like Basel..you have to laugh

Trymer. Ltd reminds me of Oldgas.