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Post by supergas on Nov 1, 2024 9:20:30 GMT
Nevada ( 6 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.1% (-0.4%) Trump 49.9%Arizona (11 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 50.9% (+0.3%) Harris 49.1%
Georgia (16 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 51.0% (+0.5%) Harris 49.0%
Pennsylvania (19 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 50.3% (+0.7%) Harris 49.7%
Michigan (15 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.0% (-0.9%) Trump 50.0%Wisconsin ( 10 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.0% (-0.8%) Trump 50.0%
North Carolina (16 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 50.5% (+0.1%) Harris 49.5%
Virginia (13 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 53.7% (-0.4%) Trump 46.3%
Florida now looks to be safe for Trump as Harris has fallen back...
Florida (30 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 52.9% (+0.9%) Harris 47.1%
Basically now just a long weekend to go. What's changing? Nevada ( 6 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 50.1% (+0.2%) Harris 49.9%
Arizona (11 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 51.1% (+0.2%) Harris 48.9%
Georgia (16 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 50.9% (-0.1%) Harris 49.1%
Pennsylvania (19 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 50.2% (-0.1%) Harris 49.8%
Michigan (15 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.5% (+0.5%) Trump 49.5%Wisconsin ( 10 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.4% (+0.4%) Trump 49.6%
North Carolina (16 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 50.7% (+0.2%) Harris 49.3%
To win Harris needs 44 of these electoral college votes (or Trump needs 51). Harris needs to Hold Michigan and Wisconsin and flip Pennsylvania to tie the Electoral College (at which point basically the party that controls the Senate will get to pick the President). To win outright she needs to flip another or two larger ones (ie Nevada and Georgia). It was all headed in Trump's direction but Harris has started to claw back some ground and so still very much the toss of a coin.... |
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yattongas
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Post by yattongas on Nov 1, 2024 12:48:22 GMT
Nevada ( 6 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.1% (-0.4%) Trump 49.9%Arizona (11 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 50.9% (+0.3%) Harris 49.1%
Georgia (16 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 51.0% (+0.5%) Harris 49.0%
Pennsylvania (19 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 50.3% (+0.7%) Harris 49.7%
Michigan (15 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.0% (-0.9%) Trump 50.0%Wisconsin ( 10 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.0% (-0.8%) Trump 50.0%
North Carolina (16 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 50.5% (+0.1%) Harris 49.5%
Virginia (13 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 53.7% (-0.4%) Trump 46.3%
Florida now looks to be safe for Trump as Harris has fallen back...
Florida (30 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 52.9% (+0.9%) Harris 47.1%
Basically now just a long weekend to go. What's changing? Nevada ( 6 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 50.1% (+0.2%) Harris 49.9%
Arizona (11 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 51.1% (+0.2%) Harris 48.9%
Georgia (16 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 50.9% (-0.1%) Harris 49.1%
Pennsylvania (19 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 50.2% (-0.1%) Harris 49.8%
Michigan (15 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.5% (+0.5%) Trump 49.5%Wisconsin ( 10 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.4% (+0.4%) Trump 49.6%
North Carolina (16 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 50.7% (+0.2%) Harris 49.3%
To win Harris needs 44 of these electoral college votes (or Trump needs 51). Harris needs to Hold Michigan and Wisconsin and flip Pennsylvania to tie the Electoral College (at which point basically the party that controls the Senate will get to pick the President). To win outright she needs to flip another or two larger ones (ie Nevada and Georgia). It was all headed in Trump's direction but Harris has started to claw back some ground and so still very much the toss of a coin.... Harris is going to win. Pennsylvania is in the bag , you know this because Trump is already claiming there’s cheating going on there. It’s not hard to read between the lines. Also Nevada going Democrat 👍 |
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Post by baggins on Nov 1, 2024 13:07:07 GMT
Basically now just a long weekend to go. What's changing? Nevada ( 6 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 50.1% (+0.2%) Harris 49.9%
Arizona (11 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 51.1% (+0.2%) Harris 48.9%
Georgia (16 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 50.9% (-0.1%) Harris 49.1%
Pennsylvania (19 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 50.2% (-0.1%) Harris 49.8%
Michigan (15 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.5% (+0.5%) Trump 49.5%Wisconsin ( 10 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Harris 50.4% (+0.4%) Trump 49.6%
North Carolina (16 electoral college votes) Nate Silver average: Trump 50.7% (+0.2%) Harris 49.3%
To win Harris needs 44 of these electoral college votes (or Trump needs 51). Harris needs to Hold Michigan and Wisconsin and flip Pennsylvania to tie the Electoral College (at which point basically the party that controls the Senate will get to pick the President). To win outright she needs to flip another or two larger ones (ie Nevada and Georgia). It was all headed in Trump's direction but Harris has started to claw back some ground and so still very much the toss of a coin.... Harris is going to win. Pennsylvania is in the bag , you know this because Trump is already claiming there’s cheating going on there. It’s not hard to read between the lines. Please let her win. It's Tuesday right? So when I wake Wednesday morning it'll all be decided? |
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yattongas
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Post by yattongas on Nov 1, 2024 13:08:52 GMT
Harris is going to win. Pennsylvania is in the bag , you know this because Trump is already claiming there’s cheating going on there. It’s not hard to read between the lines. Please let her win. It's Tuesday right? So when I wake Wednesday morning it'll all be decided? No chance ! lol 😂 Honestly don’t think we’ll get the result for at least a week . |
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Post by yattongas on Nov 2, 2024 6:18:21 GMT
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Post by gashead79 on Nov 2, 2024 8:28:28 GMT
Trump 4/7
Harris 11/8
Paddy power.
Suggest you Democrats start lumping on.
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Post by supergas on Nov 2, 2024 10:46:35 GMT
Trump 4/7 Harris 11/8 Paddy power. Suggest you Democrats start lumping on. I would. The market is like that as Trump has had all the momentum in the swing-state polls up until the last couple of days and if that had continued he would be a dead-cert - hence the odds reflect the money put on him. But polling shows Harris has turned around three of the seven and regained ground in two more. Potentially just in time to make the difference. All seven are still a toss-up (within the margin of polling error) so it could still be a huge blowout either way or it could still be an actual Electoral College tie... |
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Post by supergas on Nov 3, 2024 6:41:54 GMT
Harris is going to win. Pennsylvania is in the bag , you know this because Trump is already claiming there’s cheating going on there. It’s not hard to read between the lines. Please let her win. It's Tuesday right? So when I wake Wednesday morning it'll all be decided? Depends how close it is in which of the key states, plus how big the share of postal ballots is. Most of the states won't be close and so their results will be called pretty quickly (even before all ballots are counted - they will know the difference between the two totals and know how many are left meaning the result is effectively confirmed). The seven swing states will take longer and not just because they are close. Most people in Nevada vote by mail and the ballots can arrive as late as Saturday and still be valid. Pennsylvania is also historically slower than some at counting and predictions are it could be Thursday before they declare (especially if the margin is close). Arizona pre-counts early postal ballots but then holds those received in the last 48 hours and counts them last - their officials say these ballots (20% of the total) could take more than a week to count and so if it's close the state might not be called until the following week. North Carolina is also facing disruption post Hurricane Helene and again could take a week to count and verify the various postal/mail-in ballots. That's not to say predictions won't be made on the night of/the morning after the election. They will use their models to compare known results with predictions against various demographics and extrapolate from there. |
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yattongas
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Post by yattongas on Nov 4, 2024 14:56:39 GMT
Has Trump claimed a landslide victory yet ?
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stuart1974
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Post by stuart1974 on Nov 4, 2024 15:55:09 GMT
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yattongas
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Post by yattongas on Nov 4, 2024 15:58:32 GMT
I also have a track record of always being right . I’ve called it for Harris from the start. 😜 |
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stuart1974
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Post by stuart1974 on Nov 4, 2024 16:01:01 GMT
I also have a track record of always being right . I’ve called it for Harris from the start. 😜 Nonsense, I've read elsewhere Trump is going to win by a landslide, both the popular vote and electoral college votes. 😁 |
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Post by yattongas on Nov 4, 2024 18:25:19 GMT
No doubt they’ll be posters on here who’ll be cheering on Trump tomorrow night , totally unaware that if he gets in and starts putting tariffs on imports it’ll be to our detriment. Ironically it’ll probably push us closer to the EU as well.
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stuart1974
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Post by stuart1974 on Nov 4, 2024 20:09:15 GMT
No doubt they’ll be posters on here who’ll be cheering on Trump tomorrow night , totally unaware that if he gets in and starts putting tariffs on imports it’ll be to our detriment. Ironically it’ll probably push us closer to the EU as well. You remember that European Army we were scared into voting Brexit for? Well, Trump will undermine Nato, adding tariffs and ITAR restrictions will result in Europe working more closely and interdependently than ever. After the Suez debacle, we felt our reliance should be staying close to Washington, Paris took the view they should become self reliant under de Gaulle. Up until Trump we probably had it right, however Trump will prove de Gaulle right. |
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Post by aghast on Nov 4, 2024 23:05:06 GMT
I still think Trump will win despite Harris getting a bigger share of the vote.
I'm not a fan of our first past the post system but it looks positively enlightened compared to the US one which looks more like a Trade Union block vote from the 1970s.
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Post by supergas on Nov 5, 2024 11:26:08 GMT
I still think Trump will win despite Harris getting a bigger share of the vote. I'm not a fan of our first past the post system but it looks positively enlightened compared to the US one which looks more like a Trade Union block vote from the 1970s. I quite like the Electoral College system. Without it many states would basically become irrelevant and the candidates would focus on the large cities and ignore a lot of what the middle of the country cares about |
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Post by baggins on Nov 5, 2024 12:19:25 GMT
I still think Trump will win despite Harris getting a bigger share of the vote. I'm not a fan of our first past the post system but it looks positively enlightened compared to the US one which looks more like a Trade Union block vote from the 1970s. I quite like the Electoral College system. Without it many states would basically become irrelevant and the candidates would focus on the large cities and ignore a lot of what the middle of the country cares about Middle of the Country? |
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Post by supergas on Nov 5, 2024 12:23:43 GMT
He was on the ABC here a few weeks ago and the hosts were apparently unable to question him on specific keys. They did debate it afterwards though and even if you believe his system you have to ask if these are the correct calls: Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. TRUEThere was no 'contest' - but the sitting President was standing until the party (not him) decided he was not competent to run again and they had to replace him Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUEMany in the US are feeling like it is in recession even if it's technically not. And it still technically might enter recession soon... Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE
As well as the 'contest' issue the Bided administration has had a lot of small ones - not a 'major' one but when you pile them all up together... His system predicts two more 'keys' turning false means Trump is favourite - and it's easy to argue three could be false but he's decided they're not... |
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yattongas
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Post by yattongas on Nov 5, 2024 12:24:31 GMT
I still think Trump will win despite Harris getting a bigger share of the vote. I'm not a fan of our first past the post system but it looks positively enlightened compared to the US one which looks more like a Trade Union block vote from the 1970s. I quite like the Electoral College system. Without it many states would basically become irrelevant and the candidates would focus on the large cities and ignore a lot of what the middle of the country cares about How surprising that you favour a system that’s loaded in favour of the Republicans |
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yattongas
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Post by yattongas on Nov 5, 2024 12:24:55 GMT
I quite like the Electoral College system. Without it many states would basically become irrelevant and the candidates would focus on the large cities and ignore a lot of what the middle of the country cares about Middle of the Country? Rust belt |
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