This Government

[yattongas]

Putting up self imposed trade barriers doesn’t help either . Leaving the single market cost 40-60 billion . Hole in the budget that needs filling 40b . Yellow hammer was right but much derided as project fear.
It doesn’t take a genius ( or an economics degree ) to work this out .

Sorry for trying to play with the grown ups 🙄

[oldie]

Nov 3, 2022 20:36:14 GMT gulfofaden said:

Nov 3, 2022 18:26:27 GMT oldie said:

Ok.
In an ideal world we would see an equal mount of private sector capital investment into wealth creating commercial enterprise and an equal value of public sector investment into public services.

But it's not an ideal world.
Therefore the public sector has to step into the space increasingly vacated by the private sector which is faced with recession.
We cannot tax the private sector enough to do that, especially when demand is shrinking, so we have to borrow.
As I said above, the policies since 2010 plus Covid has not left us in the best position to do this. But do it we must.
If that works and the recession is curtailed then that "should" promote to invest to take advantage of rising demand.

We saw recently what unfunded borrowing will do at this point to the £ and to the sovereign debt markets.

I think the net cost was about £40BN. So unfunded borrowing at this level will tank a lot of the above.

There is one way we could get some more capital. Encourage multinationals to list in London. This might involve things like a corporation tax cut or perhaps even a bonus cap being removed.
The bonus cap is a strange one to be opposed because A/ they just pay them higher basic salary as they do currently and B/ capping bonus just means the profit theoretically remains on the balance sheet. It doesn’t get paid to lower paid staff, it goes to the shareholders. Of that budget, the Ctax cut and the bonus cap scrapping actually made sense. London is extremely competitive for banking, and banking pays for the NHS. London props this country up.

If we look at this on the surface. Large businesses pay less tax and bankers earn more: to the public, this is an outrage. The reality of it is that we have no divine right to have Rio, Astra et Al to list in London. Lots of countries out there will happily have them.

We can’t borrow any more essentially, we have hit the limit. The other thing to feel more positive about is much of the sell off is partly due to asset managers itching to dump risk and a limp from any country gets them hovering over their sell trades. I don’t believe that budget would have been received so poorly had we not had a very bearish market.

I agree in principle that now would be the time to borrow, but the fact is we have done this for too long.

Having to fund everything is going to create a very hostile political sphere. It’s actually a good thing. If you want a tax cut, the result on public spending will hurt you at the GPs. If you want more NHS funding; you actually have to pay for it. People will see what things cost and the lack of magic bullets, cost, comparison and compromise.

I don’t have any answers. I would have said cut Ctax but here we are. Recessions happen. The world doesn’t end. Human history is filled with ruined harvests and plagues. In the long run, borrowing our way out every time will not work because no government will ever run a surplus. One of the issues with democracy: everyone concentrates on the next 5 years only.

GoA

"We saw recently what unfunded borrowing will do at this point to the £ and to the sovereign debt markets."

Not quite. Just this week the BoE sold £750 million of government bonds. Confidence from the markets is based upon our ability to finance the debts, something in itself is predicated upon GDP growth. Traditionally the UK issues long term debt and rolls it at maturity. The other option is for the BoE to buy the debt (ie print money) and sell it to the markets when conditions are more favourable. Which is what just happened.
The risk of course is increasing money supply this way risks demand pull inflation when economic growth comes back. This didn't happen after the massive amount of "Quantitative Easing" practiced after the financial markets crash, caused by fraud in that sector, because Tory policy suppressed economic growth so successfully, although that wasn't their intention.
As a result of that appalling set of policies we were left saddled with a debt to GDP ratio of over 85% by 2017. In 2007/8 it was 48% after a very large amount of public sector investment by Labour, including increasing NHS spend by 2% of GDP.
The opposite happened after 2010.
Now we are left with broken public services, debt to GDP at 100% (including Covid spend) and a recession.

Brilliant.

[gulfofaden]

Nov 3, 2022 20:59:55 GMT oldie said:

Nov 3, 2022 20:36:14 GMT gulfofaden said:

We saw recently what unfunded borrowing will do at this point to the £ and to the sovereign debt markets.

I think the net cost was about £40BN. So unfunded borrowing at this level will tank a lot of the above.

There is one way we could get some more capital. Encourage multinationals to list in London. This might involve things like a corporation tax cut or perhaps even a bonus cap being removed.
The bonus cap is a strange one to be opposed because A/ they just pay them higher basic salary as they do currently and B/ capping bonus just means the profit theoretically remains on the balance sheet. It doesn’t get paid to lower paid staff, it goes to the shareholders. Of that budget, the Ctax cut and the bonus cap scrapping actually made sense. London is extremely competitive for banking, and banking pays for the NHS. London props this country up.

If we look at this on the surface. Large businesses pay less tax and bankers earn more: to the public, this is an outrage. The reality of it is that we have no divine right to have Rio, Astra et Al to list in London. Lots of countries out there will happily have them.

We can’t borrow any more essentially, we have hit the limit. The other thing to feel more positive about is much of the sell off is partly due to asset managers itching to dump risk and a limp from any country gets them hovering over their sell trades. I don’t believe that budget would have been received so poorly had we not had a very bearish market.

I agree in principle that now would be the time to borrow, but the fact is we have done this for too long.

Having to fund everything is going to create a very hostile political sphere. It’s actually a good thing. If you want a tax cut, the result on public spending will hurt you at the GPs. If you want more NHS funding; you actually have to pay for it. People will see what things cost and the lack of magic bullets, cost, comparison and compromise.

I don’t have any answers. I would have said cut Ctax but here we are. Recessions happen. The world doesn’t end. Human history is filled with ruined harvests and plagues. In the long run, borrowing our way out every time will not work because no government will ever run a surplus. One of the issues with democracy: everyone concentrates on the next 5 years only.

GoA

"We saw recently what unfunded borrowing will do at this point to the £ and to the sovereign debt markets."

Not quite. Just this week the BoE sold £750 million of government bonds. Confidence from the markets is based upon our ability to finance the debts, something in itself is predicated upon GDP growth. Traditionally the UK issues long term debt and rolls it at maturity. The other option is for the BoE to buy the debt (ie print money) and sell it to the markets when conditions are more favourable. Which is what just happened.
The risk of course is increasing money supply this way risks demand pull inflation when economic growth comes back. This didn't happen after the massive amount of "Quantitative Easing" practiced after the financial markets crash, caused by fraud in that sector, because Tory policy suppressed economic growth so successfully, although that wasn't their intention.
As a result of that appalling set of policies we were left saddled with a debt to GDP ratio of over 85% by 2017. In 2007/8 it was 48% after a very large amount of public sector investment by Labour, including increasing NHS spend by 2% of GDP.
The opposite happened after 2010.
Now we are left with broken public services, debt to GDP at 100% (including Covid spend) and a recession.

Brilliant.

You didn’t get inflation post GFC because while money printer go brrr, banks were destroying credit. Covid was another story and we got the inflation predicted.

I think it’s unfair to compare pre GFC with post GFC debt. After all, the GFC happened on Labour’s watch.
However, I disagree with the take that Labour were responsible. It’s absurd to think so. By the same token, it’s similar to the current plight of U.K. plc. Virtually all of the developed economies are suffering. Not so much the US, but having your currency as the world reserve helps - a lot.

As in the point about “Gordon Brown caused the GFC”, political opportunists will wait for things to turn sour and then point fingers.

Up until about 6 months ago, the U.K. was pretty strong. The moment it goes south, it’s all about Brexit. A look at our European friends shows how undeniably perilous their position is. We would currently be sharing the Russian gas crisis as an EU member state. The strongest nation (essentially, the boss) gave the best part of their energy supply to an enemy. They then laughed Donald Trump out the park when he questioned it (strange comments for a man who was allegedly bought and paid for by the Kremlin!)

None of this is over yet. My belief is the U.K. will be first in first out, if anyone thinks that the turmoil in the long end of the gilt market is all there is out there, be assured, there is more to come and it won’t all be in the U.K. We are just getting going.

Here’s hoping the war ends and peace can be negotiated.

[gulfofaden]

Nov 3, 2022 20:46:00 GMT yattongas said:

Putting up self imposed trade barriers doesn’t help either . Leaving the single market cost 40-60 billion . Whole in the budget that needs filling 40b . Yellow hammer was right but much derided as project fear.
It doesn’t take a genius ( or an economics degree ) to work this out .

Sorry for trying to play with the grown ups 🙄

Yatton, I would be more than happy to debate with you, just don’t try to provoke.

I’m still waiting for the 2017 500,000 job losses predicted by the treasury and the waves of delisting which never happened.

There were always benefits and disadvantage of leaving. Whilst we have our own issues, the eurozone is not a good place to be currently. It is not a land of milk and honey.

The key test for when this will matter is at crunch points where policy diverges. Don’t forget, we were a big part of the EU and they are much, much weaker without us.

With expansion halted in the east - Ukraine clearly being the limit as far as the Russians are concerned, I think Germany will look to expand into perhaps Turkey in coming years.

I personally believe we will be back in soon anyway. Labour I think will do this pretty much straight away is my guess.

I’m not really that bothered if we do. On balance I wanted out, but as I’ve said, there are benefits to membership too.

I hope that Europe returns to being a trade block - as it was initially described. If they’d kept that hand then none of this would have happened.

[yattongas]

Nov 3, 2022 21:43:14 GMT gulfofaden said:

Nov 3, 2022 20:46:00 GMT yattongas said:

Putting up self imposed trade barriers doesn’t help either . Leaving the single market cost 40-60 billion . Whole in the budget that needs filling 40b . Yellow hammer was right but much derided as project fear.
It doesn’t take a genius ( or an economics degree ) to work this out .

Sorry for trying to play with the grown ups 🙄

Yatton, I would be more than happy to debate with you, just don’t try to provoke.

I’m still waiting for the 2017 500,000 job losses predicted by the treasury and the waves of delisting which never happened.

There were always benefits and disadvantage of leaving. Whilst we have our own issues, the eurozone is not a good place to be currently. It is not a land of milk and honey.

The key test for when this will matter is at crunch points where policy diverges. Don’t forget, we were a big part of the EU and they are much, much weaker without us.

With expansion halted in the east - Ukraine clearly being the limit as far as the Russians are concerned, I think Germany will look to expand into perhaps Turkey in coming years.

I personally believe we will be back in soon anyway. Labour I think will do this pretty much straight away is my guess.

I’m not really that bothered if we do. On balance I wanted out, but as I’ve said, there are benefits to membership too.

I hope that Europe returns to being a trade block - as it was initially described. If they’d kept that hand then none of this would have happened.

More than happy to be civilised. Like I said earlier , you came on here acting the big man and were very condescending. 
Yes I agree , think we will rejoin the single market out of necessity in the next 5 yrs . It was a monumentally stupid idea to leave in the first place , it’s hard for those who backed Brexit to admit they were wrong but they sooner they do the sooner we can start to get things back on track . 

[yattongas]

Wonder what these UK specifics issues are ? 🤔

[yattongas]

Nov 3, 2022 21:43:14 GMT gulfofaden said:

Nov 3, 2022 20:46:00 GMT yattongas said:

Putting up self imposed trade barriers doesn’t help either . Leaving the single market cost 40-60 billion . Whole in the budget that needs filling 40b . Yellow hammer was right but much derided as project fear.
It doesn’t take a genius ( or an economics degree ) to work this out .

Sorry for trying to play with the grown ups 🙄

Yatton, I would be more than happy to debate with you, just don’t try to provoke.

I’m still waiting for the 2017 500,000 job losses predicted by the treasury and the waves of delisting which never happened.

There were always benefits and disadvantage of leaving. Whilst we have our own issues, the eurozone is not a good place to be currently. It is not a land of milk and honey.

The key test for when this will matter is at crunch points where policy diverges. Don’t forget, we were a big part of the EU and they are much, much weaker without us.

With expansion halted in the east - Ukraine clearly being the limit as far as the Russians are concerned, I think Germany will look to expand into perhaps Turkey in coming years.

I personally believe we will be back in soon anyway. Labour I think will do this pretty much straight away is my guess.

I’m not really that bothered if we do. On balance I wanted out, but as I’ve said, there are benefits to membership too.

I hope that Europe returns to being a trade block - as it was initially described. If they’d kept that hand then none of this would have happened.

What were the benefits to leaving GoA ? 
 
Do you still believe in the below , what you said in oct 2021 ? Or do you now admit you were wrong ? 
 
Or can you explain in simple terms that I can understand….. as you promised .


“Growth predicted to be faster than eurozone to 2025.
There never was an argument in economic terms to stay. Paying to be a member of a club with which we have a large trade deficit makes no sense. Demand in an open market economy leaks to import market but is offset by exports. If it’s negative in terms of net demand, then it’s not a beneficial relationship. Most EU imports are substitutable. We can quite happily buy Jags instead of beamers. The city of London isn’t substitutable, it’s 2nd in terms of global competitiveness compared to Europe’s best shot which is Frankfurt at 17th and Amsterdam at 23rd. The idea that an Asian businessman, who speaks English, studied at Oxford and knows English contract law is going to delist in London and learn French law is laughable. “

[stuart1974]

Looks like a number of projects will be axed or deferred in the Autumn Statement, with Sizewell C and parts of HS2 in the firing line.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63507630

[stuart1974]

Nov 3, 2022 21:43:14 GMT gulfofaden said:

Nov 3, 2022 20:46:00 GMT yattongas said:

Putting up self imposed trade barriers doesn’t help either . Leaving the single market cost 40-60 billion . Whole in the budget that needs filling 40b . Yellow hammer was right but much derided as project fear.
It doesn’t take a genius ( or an economics degree ) to work this out .

Sorry for trying to play with the grown ups 🙄

Yatton, I would be more than happy to debate with you, just don’t try to provoke.

I’m still waiting for the 2017 500,000 job losses predicted by the treasury and the waves of delisting which never happened.

There were always benefits and disadvantage of leaving. Whilst we have our own issues, the eurozone is not a good place to be currently. It is not a land of milk and honey.

The key test for when this will matter is at crunch points where policy diverges. Don’t forget, we were a big part of the EU and they are much, much weaker without us.

With expansion halted in the east - Ukraine clearly being the limit as far as the Russians are concerned, I think Germany will look to expand into perhaps Turkey in coming years.

I personally believe we will be back in soon anyway. Labour I think will do this pretty much straight away is my guess.

I’m not really that bothered if we do. On balance I wanted out, but as I’ve said, there are benefits to membership too.

I hope that Europe returns to being a trade block - as it was initially described. If they’d kept that hand then none of this would have happened.

There is no chance in my mind that Turkey will become a member, perhaps some of the smaller countries such as the Republic of North Macedonia or Montenegro. As for Ukraine, there is a long way to go before they will be members, although sentiment will help fast track them once things are resolved.

I can't see Labour doing anything too overt in their first term or they'll lose the north again. They have ruled out rejoining the single market at the moment, I can see them rejoining the Customs Union which nearly got voted through during Theresa May's time.

[gulfofaden]

Nov 3, 2022 23:25:33 GMT yattongas said:

Nov 3, 2022 21:43:14 GMT gulfofaden said:

Yatton, I would be more than happy to debate with you, just don’t try to provoke.

I’m still waiting for the 2017 500,000 job losses predicted by the treasury and the waves of delisting which never happened.

There were always benefits and disadvantage of leaving. Whilst we have our own issues, the eurozone is not a good place to be currently. It is not a land of milk and honey.

The key test for when this will matter is at crunch points where policy diverges. Don’t forget, we were a big part of the EU and they are much, much weaker without us.

With expansion halted in the east - Ukraine clearly being the limit as far as the Russians are concerned, I think Germany will look to expand into perhaps Turkey in coming years.

I personally believe we will be back in soon anyway. Labour I think will do this pretty much straight away is my guess.

I’m not really that bothered if we do. On balance I wanted out, but as I’ve said, there are benefits to membership too.

I hope that Europe returns to being a trade block - as it was initially described. If they’d kept that hand then none of this would have happened.

What were the benefits to leaving GoA ? 
 
Do you still believe in the below , what you said in oct 2021 ? Or do you now admit you were wrong ? 
 
Or can you explain in simple terms that I can understand….. as you promised .


“Growth predicted to be faster than eurozone to 2025.
There never was an argument in economic terms to stay. Paying to be a member of a club with which we have a large trade deficit makes no sense. Demand in an open market economy leaks to import market but is offset by exports. If it’s negative in terms of net demand, then it’s not a beneficial relationship. Most EU imports are substitutable. We can quite happily buy Jags instead of beamers. The city of London isn’t substitutable, it’s 2nd in terms of global competitiveness compared to Europe’s best shot which is Frankfurt at 17th and Amsterdam at 23rd. The idea that an Asian businessman, who speaks English, studied at Oxford and knows English contract law is going to delist in London and learn French law is laughable. “

Yes, it all stands.

Do you think the low growth and high inflation has anything to do with leaving the eurozone?

I think I may have said on this thread at some point that it would always be the case that the first economic bump would be exploited as some kind of evidence that it is brexit-related.

There was no recession when we voted leave.
There was no recession when we left.
We have a recession coming now which has nothing to do with leaving the EU.

You may feel you have your tabloid “gotcha” because finally, after 6 years from the vote when half a million jobs were supposed to be lost, in 12 months from now we might lose some jobs, but it’s really not the gotcha you want I’m afraid.

To explain it in simple terms:

You are a supplier of cars
I am a supplier of fridges.
You buy one fridge a year for £100
I buy 5 cars from you for £300,000

You want a deal which means that I face barriers to sell fridges to anyone else.

The last 2 years have shown, unequivocally, that project fears predictions were all lies. There was no brexit recession. There were no 500k jobs lost. None of it happened.

We now have an energy-led inflationary spiral which is present across all developed markets. Including the EU. Who currently have managed their energy supply so poorly, by switching off nuclear etc, that they might have to ration energy.

Far from losing half a million jobs, we have the lowest unemployment on record. Not a job was lost when aggregated.

[yattongas]

The affects from Brexit were masked by covid and the furlough scheme . As we’ve come out of it and restarted the economy we haven’t grown our economy as predicted. We’re lagging behind other EU countries . There’s a labour shortage because thousands left to go home .
Unbelievable that you have the nerve to say project fear lies .
It’s hitting home big time now in loads of sectors . It’s almost laughable that you are in such denial but that would admit you were wrong wouldn’t it ? 🙄

[trevorgas]

Nov 4, 2022 0:50:30 GMT stuart1974 said:

Nov 3, 2022 21:43:14 GMT gulfofaden said:

Yatton, I would be more than happy to debate with you, just don’t try to provoke.

I’m still waiting for the 2017 500,000 job losses predicted by the treasury and the waves of delisting which never happened.

There were always benefits and disadvantage of leaving. Whilst we have our own issues, the eurozone is not a good place to be currently. It is not a land of milk and honey.

The key test for when this will matter is at crunch points where policy diverges. Don’t forget, we were a big part of the EU and they are much, much weaker without us.

With expansion halted in the east - Ukraine clearly being the limit as far as the Russians are concerned, I think Germany will look to expand into perhaps Turkey in coming years.

I personally believe we will be back in soon anyway. Labour I think will do this pretty much straight away is my guess.

I’m not really that bothered if we do. On balance I wanted out, but as I’ve said, there are benefits to membership too.

I hope that Europe returns to being a trade block - as it was initially described. If they’d kept that hand then none of this would have happened.

There is no chance in my mind that Turkey will become a member, perhaps some of the smaller countries such as the Republic of North Macedonia or Montenegro. As for Ukraine, there is a long way to go before they will be members, although sentiment will help fast track them once things are resolved.

I can't see Labour doing anything too overt in their first term or they'll lose the north again. They have ruled out rejoining the single market at the moment, I can see them rejoining the Customs Union which nearly got voted through during Theresa May's time.

I tend to agree with you ,Stuart if we go back into the Customs Union what else do we have to rejoin?

[trevorgas]

Nov 4, 2022 0:39:16 GMT stuart1974 said:

Looks like a number of projects will be axed or deferred in the Autumn Statement, with Sizewell C and parts of HS2 in the firing line.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63507630

Never understood the point of HS2,a blight on the countryside including SSIs,using out dated technology just so the great and the good can get to London from Manchester 10-20 mins quicker,I would much rather have seen the investment go to West to East lines where there is much greater need and surely WFH ala COVID has shown folk don't need to be physically in the room .

[stuart1974]

Nov 4, 2022 8:06:33 GMT trevorgas said:

Nov 4, 2022 0:50:30 GMT stuart1974 said:

There is no chance in my mind that Turkey will become a member, perhaps some of the smaller countries such as the Republic of North Macedonia or Montenegro. As for Ukraine, there is a long way to go before they will be members, although sentiment will help fast track them once things are resolved.

I can't see Labour doing anything too overt in their first term or they'll lose the north again. They have ruled out rejoining the single market at the moment, I can see them rejoining the Customs Union which nearly got voted through during Theresa May's time.

I tend to agree with you ,Stuart if we go back into the Customs Union what else do we have to rejoin?

I've just double checked, they have ruled out rejoining the Customs Union.

Setting out Britain’s relationship with Europe under a Labour government, Starmer will say: “With Labour, Britain will not go back into the EU. We will not be joining the single market. We will not be joining a customs union.” He will add: “We will not return to freedom of movement to create short term fixes. Instead we will invest in our people and our places, and deliver on the promise our country has.”

labour.org.uk/press/keir-starmer-sets-out-labours-5-point-plan-to-make-brexit-work/

[stuart1974]

Nov 4, 2022 8:11:38 GMT trevorgas said:

Nov 4, 2022 0:39:16 GMT stuart1974 said:

Looks like a number of projects will be axed or deferred in the Autumn Statement, with Sizewell C and parts of HS2 in the firing line.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63507630

Never understood the point of HS2,a blight on the countryside including SSIs,using out dated technology just so the great and the good can get to London from Manchester 10-20 mins quicker,I would much rather have seen the investment go to West to East lines where there is much greater need and surely WFH ala COVID has shown folk don't need to be physically in the room .

I agree, full broadband would be much more helpful.

With HS2, this is what I expected from a south to north route. Should have been north to south to ensure it was completed, or even better, Hull to Liverpool.

[gulfofaden]

Nov 3, 2022 22:56:20 GMT yattongas said:

Wonder what these UK specifics issues are ? 🤔

The unfunded budget by Truss.

Not brexit.

Plus, what’s a global sovereign debt yield?

It’s not an aggregate of world government yields is it?

The Italian 10 y is 4.3% and the French OAT is 2.75% (France has nuclear power)

So we are falling somewhere between the two. Up until the mini budget, our yields were pretty good.

[trevorgas]

Nov 4, 2022 8:39:38 GMT stuart1974 said:

Nov 4, 2022 8:11:38 GMT trevorgas said:

Never understood the point of HS2,a blight on the countryside including SSIs,using out dated technology just so the great and the good can get to London from Manchester 10-20 mins quicker,I would much rather have seen the investment go to West to East lines where there is much greater need and surely WFH ala COVID has shown folk don't need to be physically in the room .

I agree, full broadband would be much more helpful.

With HS2, this is what I expected from a south to north route. Should have been north to south to ensure it was completed, or even better, Hull to Liverpool.

Absolutely, Manchester to Leeds needs vast improvement having travelled it many a time it's shocking and don't start me on Wales😊

[trevorgas]

Nov 4, 2022 8:36:01 GMT stuart1974 said:

Nov 4, 2022 8:06:33 GMT trevorgas said:

I tend to agree with you ,Stuart if we go back into the Customs Union what else do we have to rejoin?

I've just double checked, they have ruled out rejoining the Customs Union.

Setting out Britain’s relationship with Europe under a Labour government, Starmer will say: “With Labour, Britain will not go back into the EU. We will not be joining the single market. We will not be joining a customs union.” He will add: “We will not return to freedom of movement to create short term fixes. Instead we will invest in our people and our places, and deliver on the promise our country has.”

labour.org.uk/press/keir-starmer-sets-out-labours-5-point-plan-to-make-brexit-work/

Emm that's interesting,wonder how long that plan will survive first contact,it's painfully obvious we have a labour shortage in some areas although the recession and rising unemployment may solve that.

[stuart1974]

Nov 4, 2022 9:05:50 GMT trevorgas said:

Nov 4, 2022 8:36:01 GMT stuart1974 said:

I've just double checked, they have ruled out rejoining the Customs Union.

Setting out Britain’s relationship with Europe under a Labour government, Starmer will say: “With Labour, Britain will not go back into the EU. We will not be joining the single market. We will not be joining a customs union.” He will add: “We will not return to freedom of movement to create short term fixes. Instead we will invest in our people and our places, and deliver on the promise our country has.”

labour.org.uk/press/keir-starmer-sets-out-labours-5-point-plan-to-make-brexit-work/

Emm that's interesting,wonder how long that plan will survive first contact,it's painfully obvious we have a labour shortage in some areas although the recession and rising unemployment may solve that.

There has been talk of making it easier for our creative industries to work in the EU, at the moment musicians have to apply in each member state. Could be a way to loosen work permit requirements elsewhere but Labour's statement above is pretty unequivocal in terms of customs union, single market and the freedom of movement. We are still 2 years away from an election so time to modify plans.

By the time much changes, it'll be 10 years since we voted to leave. That's 2 generations in Scottish politics. 😃

[oldie]

Nov 4, 2022 6:09:16 GMT gulfofaden said:

Nov 3, 2022 23:25:33 GMT yattongas said:

What were the benefits to leaving GoA ? 
 
Do you still believe in the below , what you said in oct 2021 ? Or do you now admit you were wrong ? 
 
Or can you explain in simple terms that I can understand….. as you promised .


“Growth predicted to be faster than eurozone to 2025.
There never was an argument in economic terms to stay. Paying to be a member of a club with which we have a large trade deficit makes no sense. Demand in an open market economy leaks to import market but is offset by exports. If it’s negative in terms of net demand, then it’s not a beneficial relationship. Most EU imports are substitutable. We can quite happily buy Jags instead of beamers. The city of London isn’t substitutable, it’s 2nd in terms of global competitiveness compared to Europe’s best shot which is Frankfurt at 17th and Amsterdam at 23rd. The idea that an Asian businessman, who speaks English, studied at Oxford and knows English contract law is going to delist in London and learn French law is laughable. “

Yes, it all stands.

Do you think the low growth and high inflation has anything to do with leaving the eurozone?

I think I may have said on this thread at some point that it would always be the case that the first economic bump would be exploited as some kind of evidence that it is brexit-related.

There was no recession when we voted leave.
There was no recession when we left.
We have a recession coming now which has nothing to do with leaving the EU.

You may feel you have your tabloid “gotcha” because finally, after 6 years from the vote when half a million jobs were supposed to be lost, in 12 months from now we might lose some jobs, but it’s really not the gotcha you want I’m afraid.

To explain it in simple terms:

You are a supplier of cars
I am a supplier of fridges.
You buy one fridge a year for £100
I buy 5 cars from you for £300,000

You want a deal which means that I face barriers to sell fridges to anyone else.

The last 2 years have shown, unequivocally, that project fears predictions were all lies. There was no brexit recession. There were no 500k jobs lost. None of it happened.

We now have an energy-led inflationary spiral which is present across all developed markets. Including the EU. Who currently have managed their energy supply so poorly, by switching off nuclear etc, that they might have to ration energy.

Far from losing half a million jobs, we have the lowest unemployment on record. Not a job was lost when aggregated.

The unemployment rate in the UK, as expressed as a % of working age people is currently low because upwards of 2 million people have left the labour force, not because of economic growth. I believe it is important to understand the detail when quoting headline figures.
You would think, with such a number of people leaving the labour market our productivity levels would increase. They have not, which points to another issue in our economy, the lack of investment.
What has happened is that because of these two factors our output has flatlined.
To exacerbate this, leaving the world's largest be single tariff free market has piled a very large administrative and cost burden on UK business. I laughed out loud when Rees-Mogg stated that the government would NOT be implementing the terms of the trade agreement (re tariffs) with the EU as it would be, in his words, "an act of national self harm". Really. And he said it with a straight face.
For me, the point is, it was the idealogues that brought us "austerity" the same idealogues that lied and brought us Brexit, the same idealogues that imposed Johnson upon us and the same idealogues that brought us Truss.

The same idealogues that doubled our national debt and wrecked our public services.