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Post by stuart1974 on Mar 10, 2024 14:36:30 GMT
Be interesting to know what can be negotiated. I can’t see Putin allowing Ukraine to become a Nato or EU member and withdrawing to either the pre 2022 border or pre 2014 border. Ukraine may have conceded land for peace before this latest round but there is no way they would countenance that now without security guarantees, which will mean nothing now and ring hollow, especially after the likes of Bakhmut, execution of prisoners or the abduction of 20,000 children. Russia would just regroup, rearm and go again in 5-10 years. Ukraine would take a worse deal now than they would have 12 months ago, but no way they would agree to not being allowed to join either NATO or the EU - and if any 'ally' suggests they should then we need to ask serious questions of that 'ally'...as you suggest, a bad deal now only allows Russia to go again, in Ukraine or elsewhere, as and when they choose to... Hard to think that Europe's future depends on whether Trump gets re-elected. |
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Post by supergas on Mar 13, 2024 10:34:32 GMT
Ukraine would take a worse deal now than they would have 12 months ago, but no way they would agree to not being allowed to join either NATO or the EU - and if any 'ally' suggests they should then we need to ask serious questions of that 'ally'...as you suggest, a bad deal now only allows Russia to go again, in Ukraine or elsewhere, as and when they choose to... Hard to think that Europe's future depends on whether Trump gets re-elected. Not sure about Europe as a whole, but Ukraine's future is more likely to depend on the make-up of the House and the Senate - even if Biden wins the Presidency, if the Republicans control either the House or the Senate (and they might control both) there will be little or no money or arms to support Ukraine. Surprised the EU are not making more of this period of uncertainty - there is a natural void for the next 6-9 months where they could step up and lead politically and morally supporting Ukraine. Yes I know there are plans and funding in place from them, but it doesn't cover the potential drop in US support. As a union that has ambitions on being a world super-power, I thought they would be doing a bit more and showing their political/economic/military strength... |
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Post by stuart1974 on Mar 13, 2024 11:25:00 GMT
Hard to think that Europe's future depends on whether Trump gets re-elected. Not sure about Europe as a whole, but Ukraine's future is more likely to depend on the make-up of the House and the Senate - even if Biden wins the Presidency, if the Republicans control either the House or the Senate (and they might control both) there will be little or no money or arms to support Ukraine. Surprised the EU are not making more of this period of uncertainty - there is a natural void for the next 6-9 months where they could step up and lead politically and morally supporting Ukraine. Yes I know there are plans and funding in place from them, but it doesn't cover the potential drop in US support. As a union that has ambitions on being a world super-power, I thought they would be doing a bit more and showing their political/economic/military strength... I don't mean a full scale invasion as that would be too much, I'm thinking a further incursion or unrest. Moldova is the obvious next area via a Russian enclave. Putin could quite easily take Moldova supplied through Ukraine and the Black Sea. After that tensions will be stoked in the Baltics who have a sizeable Russian population. If Trump undermines confidence in Nato or even pulls the US away, it'll be the green light to act. Even now he's indirectly preventing the US from providing funds. The best way to stop that is to give Ukraine the necessary tools so Putin is either defeated or given enough of a bloody nose to not extend further. As for the EU, there isn't much it can do as defence is a national government item. It can help coordinate and fund centrally but as we've seen, infighting over contracts and people like Orban can frustrate. Funny how we've been warned over Brussels dictating what sovereign nations can do when in reality even relatively small sovereign nations can stop the EU from acting. 🤔 Time for all of Europe to step up. The UK can lead here if we really want to. |
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Post by stuart1974 on Mar 22, 2024 14:00:01 GMT
The Dnipro dam is being attacked at the moment, could be one to watch.
In better news, 10 Ukrainian pilots have passed the first stage of their UK based training. Hopefully moving onto F16s at some point.
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Post by trevorgas on Mar 22, 2024 15:36:32 GMT
The Dnipro dam is being attacked at the moment, could be one to watch. In better news, 10 Ukrainian pilots have passed the first stage of their UK based training. Hopefully moving onto F16s at some point. Europe and in particularly France/Germany need to up military assistance or this will only go one way. The US playing politics with Ukraine is disgusting. |
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Post by trevorgas on Mar 22, 2024 15:39:29 GMT
Hard to think that Europe's future depends on whether Trump gets re-elected. Not sure about Europe as a whole, but Ukraine's future is more likely to depend on the make-up of the House and the Senate - even if Biden wins the Presidency, if the Republicans control either the House or the Senate (and they might control both) there will be little or no money or arms to support Ukraine. Surprised the EU are not making more of this period of uncertainty - there is a natural void for the next 6-9 months where they could step up and lead politically and morally supporting Ukraine. Yes I know there are plans and funding in place from them, but it doesn't cover the potential drop in US support. As a union that has ambitions on being a world super-power, I thought they would be doing a bit more and showing their political/economic/military strength... Nah like to talk a lot,pass laws that aren't needed and prove masters at doing nothing |
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Post by trevorgas on Mar 22, 2024 15:39:40 GMT
Not sure about Europe as a whole, but Ukraine's future is more likely to depend on the make-up of the House and the Senate - even if Biden wins the Presidency, if the Republicans control either the House or the Senate (and they might control both) there will be little or no money or arms to support Ukraine. Surprised the EU are not making more of this period of uncertainty - there is a natural void for the next 6-9 months where they could step up and lead politically and morally supporting Ukraine. Yes I know there are plans and funding in place from them, but it doesn't cover the potential drop in US support. As a union that has ambitions on being a world super-power, I thought they would be doing a bit more and showing their political/economic/military strength... Nah like to talk a lot,pass laws that aren't needed and prove masters at doing nothing |
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yattongas
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Post by yattongas on Mar 22, 2024 19:12:49 GMT
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Post by stuart1974 on Mar 25, 2024 16:28:46 GMT
Claimed by IS, yet they were "heading back" to Ukraine. Hmm. 🙄 Nice police though, if reports are true (which they seem to be). |
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Post by trevorgas on Mar 25, 2024 18:45:57 GMT
Claimed by IS, yet they were "heading back" to Ukraine. Hmm. 🙄 Nice police though, if reports are true (which they seem to be). I think we know the Putin play book,the Russian public are all to ready to believe the Ukrainians were involved despite evidence to the contary as it soothes any conscience they may have over their aggression also,with no other views allowed to be articulated Putin's view holds sway. |
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Post by stuart1974 on Mar 27, 2024 10:01:47 GMT
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Post by trevorgas on Mar 27, 2024 10:11:17 GMT
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Post by stuart1974 on Mar 27, 2024 10:23:33 GMT
No, and these will just be those who made it to POW status. Many more won't even get that classification. In other news there has been a big increase in munition manufacturing in Europe, apparently we are about to confirm a big procurement soon. It will still take time and the hold up in the US is going to cost lives. Haven't watched it yet, but there was a documentary the other day on BBC2 that's supposed to be sobering but worth catching. |
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Post by trevorgas on Mar 27, 2024 16:21:01 GMT
No, and these will just be those who made it to POW status. Many more won't even get that classification. In other news there has been a big increase in munition manufacturing in Europe, apparently we are about to confirm a big procurement soon. It will still take time and the hold up in the US is going to cost lives. Haven't watched it yet, but there was a documentary the other day on BBC2 that's supposed to be sobering but worth catching. That's good news,wish the US would fill the gap whilst production ramps up,their playing with Ukrainian lives and it's sickening. Saw the Doc on BBC2 Re fighting in a wooded area,it was heartbreaking,what was very interesting was how drones almost completely control the battlefield,the same as planes did when they first became an essential military asset. |
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Post by stuart1974 on Apr 3, 2024 10:25:02 GMT
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Post by aghast on Apr 3, 2024 22:11:07 GMT
That's a classic case of the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Two strange bedfellows. |
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Post by supergas on Apr 4, 2024 8:02:19 GMT
Not the first time Iran (well, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) have tried to kill reporters from Iran International TV. Couple of years back a plot to assassinate two of their TV anchors was foiled because instead of using their own agents they tried to recruit an international hitman who (as it turns out) was also working for Western Intelligence agencies and they apparently pay better. |
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Post by stuart1974 on Apr 5, 2024 15:17:28 GMT
Some people actually believe this.
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Post by stuart1974 on Apr 14, 2024 17:53:32 GMT
Hope he's right. "Feng Yujun, one of the China's leading Russianists and a professor at Peking University: Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine – The Economist Four reasons why Russian Federation will lose to Ukraine, according to Feng Yujun: The first is the level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians, which has until now been extraordinary. The second is international support for Ukraine, which, though recently falling short of the country’s expectations, remains broad. The third factor is the nature of modern warfare, a contest that turns on a combination of industrial might and command, control, communications and intelligence systems. One reason Russia has struggled in this war is that it is yet to recover from the dramatic deindustrialisation it suffered after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The final factor is information. When it comes to decision-making, Vladimir Putin is trapped in an information cocoon, thanks to his having been in power so long. The Russian president and his national-security team lack access to accurate intelligence. The system they operate lacks an efficient mechanism for correcting errors. Their Ukrainian counterparts are more flexible and effective. His conclusion is as follows: Russia will be forced to withdraw from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea. Russia's nuclear capability is no guarantee of success. Feng Yujun gives the example of the United States, which left Vietnam, Korea, and Afghanistan with no less nuclear potential than the Russian Federation has today. Kyiv has proven that Moscow is not invincible, so a ceasefire under the "Korean" scenario is ruled out. The war is a turning-point for Russia. It has consigned Putin’s regime to broad international isolation. He has also had to deal with difficult domestic political undercurrents, from the rebellion by the mercenaries of the Wagner Group and other pockets of the military — for instance in Belgorod — to ethnic tensions in several Russian regions and the recent terrorist attack in Moscow. These show that political risk in Russia is very high. Mr Putin may recently have been re-elected, but he faces all kinds of possible black-swan events. After the war, Ukraine will have the chance join both the EU and NATO, while Russia will lose its former Soviet republics because they see Putin's aggression there as a threat to their sovereignty and territorial integrity. According to Feng Yujun, the war, meanwhile, has made Europe wake up to the enormous threat that Russia’s military aggression poses to the continent’s security and the international order, bringing post-cold-war EU-Russia detente to an end. Many European countries have given up their illusions about Mr Putin’s Russia." Source: economist.com/by-invitation/2024/04/11/russia-is-sure-to-lose-in-ukraine-reckons-a-chinese-expert-on-russia |
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Post by stuart1974 on Apr 17, 2024 14:01:31 GMT
At least 50,000 Russians have been killed. Doesn’t make pleasant reading for the convicts promised a Pardon if they survive the war. "Former prisoners have also described the high price paid by their comrades. "If you sign up now, be ready to die, mate," says Sergei, in an online forum for Storm fighters and their relatives, where information is shared. He claims to be a former inmate who has been fighting in a Storm unit since October. Another forum member says he joined a Storm platoon of 100 soldiers five months ago and is now one of just 38 still alive. "Every combat mission is like being born again." " www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-68819853 |
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